Enabling Prediction Markets on Cronos

Enabling Prediction Markets on Cronos

Led 3-person design team

Zero-to-one

Web 3

Delphi is Cronos' first on-chain prediction markets protocol. It lets users trade YES/NO outcomes on real-world events from crypto prices to sports to politics. The real design challenge wasn't interface. It was trust in a product category most users had never touched, on a surface that had to feel simple without being shallow.

Delphi is Cronos' first on-chain prediction markets protocol. It lets users trade YES/NO outcomes on real-world events from crypto prices to sports to politics. The real design challenge wasn't interface. It was trust in a product category most users had never touched, on a surface that had to feel simple without being shallow.

Outcome & Impact

Metrics within 6 months of launch.
6-month targets set before shipping.

$500K target →

$870K+

Trading volume

1,500 target →

1,800+

Traders onboarded

150 target →

105+

Markets created - For the first four months all markets were created by the Delphi team. We opened creation to users in month four, requiring initial liquidity,
a higher barrier than trading.

The challenge

Cronos was losing prediction market activity to competitors. Users had to leave the ecosystem entirely to place trades pulling volume and engagement outside the platform. The business objective was to prove that a native protocol could retain users within Cronos and generate real trading activity.

We were given 6 weeks. No existing user base, no IA to inherit, and a product category that most users had never encountered before.

Where I pushed back

The PM proposed lifting the IA directly from a competitor to compress the timeline. I argued we couldn't commit to a structure before understanding who Delphi's users were and what would make them stay.

I pushed for a two-week research extension and presented a clear discovery plan to the team. The original 6-week timeline moved to 8. That decision shaped the product's navigation, scope, and feature prioritisation from the ground up.

My role

Led two product designers across the full project and through post-MVP.

Owned: user research, IA, primary flows, and final design approval. Led: design direction, twice-weekly alignment, critique, and work distribution: core flows with me, execution and edge cases with the team.

The job wasn't just designing Delphi. It was making sure three designers shipped one coherent product.

How I ran the team

Across the project I ran two recurring design syncs per week, one to review progress, one to make decisions on open items and unblock the next sprint. During discovery we reviewed research findings together and formed hypotheses as a team rather than me handing down conclusions.

With the wider cross-functional team I set up a weekly design show and tell from the start, so Product and Engineering were never surprised by where design was heading. In the final weeks, as build ramped up, I moved this to twice a week — Mondays and Thursdays — and added a parallel engineering show and tell where developers walked through the build step by step.

That meant design could catch implementation drift early, before it compounded. Issues found in a show and tell take an hour to fix. Issues found in QA take a week.

Research approach

Competitive
analysis

User
interviews

Workshop
& IA

Prototyping
& testing

Outcome & Impact

Metrics within 5 months of launch. 3-month targets set before shipping.

$500K target →

$870K+

Trading volume

1,500 target →

1,800+

Traders onboarded

150 target →

105+

Markets created - For the first four months all markets were created by the Delphi team. We opened creation to users in month four, requiring initial liquidity, a higher barrier than trading.

Outcome & Impact

Metrics within 5 months of launch. 3-month targets set before shipping.

$500K target →

$870K+

Trading volume

1,500 target →

1,800+

Traders onboarded

150 target →

105+

Markets created - For the first four months all markets were created by the Delphi team. We opened creation to users in month four, requiring initial liquidity, a higher barrier than trading.

Competitive landscape

Competitive landscape

I looked at 12 existing prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, and others comparing features, design, and real usage data.

Accessibility gap

Half weren't beginner-friendly. We owned accessibility.

Market creation gap

Only 3 of 12 let users create markets. We made it core.

Engagement, not reach

Polymarket: $607M from 437k users. Limitless: $38M from 600. Depth beats reach.

User interviews

I ran 7 interviews with a mix of newcomers and experienced users. Instead of asking what they wanted, I had each person pick their favourite protocol Polymarket, Manifold, whatever they actually used and walk me through how they used it, what they looked for, and where they got stuck.

Three patterns kept emerging.

Key insights

Placing a bet shouldn't require a trader's vocabulary

People join when the market looks active and trustworthy

Engagement shouldn't end the moment a bet is placed

User persona

Design principles

Why it matters: These insights shaped the MVP scope and structure, prioritising clarity, confidence, and early participation over feature depth.

Principle #1

Clarity before power

Make outcomes and next steps clear before introducing advanced controls.

Principle #2

Reveal complexity gradually

Only show advanced detail when users need it.

Principle #3

Keep jobs separate

Treat Discover, Portfolio, and Rewards as distinct tasks

Principle #4

Design for confidence

Use clear states, confirmations, and recovery paths to reduce anxiety.

IA workshop
(how I drove alignment)

Research time was tight, but alignment on product structure had to happen before a single screen was built. I organised a hands-on card sorting workshop with Product and Engineering (10 participants across both disciplines) to map user tasks, group them by intent, and agree the MVP navigation in the room.

The team walked out with shared ownership of the IA not just my recommendation of it.

Step 1

Step 2

Step 3

Step 4

Core design decision.

The most important design decision wasn't visual. Behind every market sits a conditional token framework, users lock real money as collateral, receive tokens representing possible outcomes, and those tokens settle at $1 if correct or $0 if wrong. None of that mechanism should reach the user.

I worked with engineering to land on a single metaphor: the price of YES is the probability of YES. A market at 38% means YES costs 38 cents and pays $1 if it wins. One concept, applied consistently across every screen.

Wireframing & Validation

Wireframing & Validation

With architecture and principles locked, I moved into wireframing and early validation to pressure-test the riskiest parts of the flow before visual design making sure users could understand the system, complete key actions, and recover from mistakes without extra explanation.

User test results

6 participants tested Delphi across 6 tasks.

Overall
sentiment

4.4/5 on core flows

4.4/5 average score

4.4/5

Core flows tested well. The two crypto-native participants navigated limit orders and the order book without friction. The remaining four struggled, the mechanics were unfamiliar and the interface didn't bridge that gap clearly enough. Every participant struggled to differentiate rewards from winnings. The language and placement made the two feel interchangeable when they weren't.

Core flows tested well. The two crypto-native participants navigated limit orders and the order book without friction. The remaining four struggled, the mechanics were unfamiliar and the interface didn't bridge that gap clearly enough. Every participant struggled to differentiate rewards from winnings. The language and placement made the two feel interchangeable when they weren't.

I pushed for either a one-week extension to iterate or a delayed launch of the Rewards system. Senior leadership required the full feature set to ship on time. We launched knowing it was a known problem.

The plan was to treat Discord community sentiment as live qualitative data and use screen recordings to study actual behaviour post-launch

I pushed for either a one-week extension to iterate or a delayed launch of the Rewards system. Senior leadership required the full feature set to ship on time. We launched knowing it was a known problem.

The plan was to treat Discord community sentiment as live qualitative data and use screen recordings to study actual behaviour post-launch

I pushed for either a one-week extension to iterate or a delayed launch of the Rewards system. Senior leadership required the full feature set to ship on time. We launched knowing it was a known problem.

The plan was to treat Discord community sentiment as live qualitative data and use screen recordings to study actual behaviour post-launch

"I really like this UI a lot, very similar to stock trading app, not super crypto, it's very simple." — Participant 5

Design system

Design system

I established core UI foundations and component patterns, evolving them into a lightweight design system that supported consistency and rapid iteration across the MVP and future features.

Components were built to WCAG 2.1 Level AA as a baseline, contrast ratios, labelled inputs, and descriptive error states were defined at system level, not left to individual screens.

Design decisions

I worked with the Creative team to define the visual direction. The goal was an interface that felt credible and calm in a category prone to feeling chaotic. Financial-grade, not crypto-loud.

  • Delphi markets
  • Events
  • Market info
  • Winning modal
  • Profile
  • Vouchers
  • Onboarding
  • Delphi markets
  • Events
  • Market info
  • Winning modal
  • Profile
  • Vouchers
  • Onboarding

Market Details

Clarity before power · Reveal complexity gradually · Design for confidence

The decision-to-trade screen. We simplified market sentiment into a visual bar, probability at a glance, no trading vocabulary required. The order book and settlement rules are collapsed by default; available for experienced traders who need them, out of the way for everyone else. Live odds, volume, time remaining, and the community thread all sit in one scroll. Yes/No buttons stay pinned to the bottom so the trade action is always one tap away, no matter how deep into the discussion someone goes. Power is there. It just doesn't lead.

Win celebration

Design for confidence

When a market resolves in the user's favour, the payout becomes a moment instead of a dry confirmation. Total winnings are front and centre no ambiguity about whether the money arrived. The Share button turns every win into a low-cost growth loop. A clear outcome state is also a trust signal: users who know exactly what they won come back.

Portfolio

Keep jobs separate · Design for confidence

The user's home base distinct from discovery and trading. Available cash, total holdings, vouchers, and claimable winnings sit in a single scan. The Claimable card promotes itself to a CTA whenever there's money sitting in escrow, so payouts never get forgotten. Portfolio is one job. We didn't let trading bleed into it.

Vouchers

Clarity before power · Reveal complexity gradually

Vouchers are the app's core retention lever. This sheet shows every booster the user holds, what each is worth, and which apply to the trade they're about to place. Non-applicable vouchers stay visible but dimmed users understand why they can't redeem them instead of wondering where they went. Complexity is present but legible, not hidden.

Onboarding

Reveal complexity gradually · Clarity before power

The onboarding flow doubles as a protocol guide. New users are walked through how markets work, how trades resolve, and how boosters and vouchers function, one concept at a time, in the order they'll encounter them. The goal is to turn first-time users into informed traders before their first trade, not after their first mistake.

Markets feed

Keep jobs separate · Clarity before power

The discovery surface is its own job separate from trading, portfolio, and rewards. Promotional banners sit at the top to surface live campaigns and events without requiring users to dig through a notifications inbox. Featured markets and category filters sit below. Finding a market to trade is a distinct task. We designed it that way.

Trading competition

Design for confidence

Delphi hosts timed trading competitions to keep traders engaged and reward sustained activity. This screen surfaces the active event, the user's own rank, the prize structure, and a countdown to close everything needed to decide whether to engage, without hunting for context. Competitions were also a deliberate growth lever: more trades per user, higher platform volume, a recurring reason to come back beyond any single market outcome.

Design metrics

Delphi ran for six months before new leadership decided to absorb prediction markets into the core Cronos app, a strategic decision to scale the feature at platform level. These metrics reflect that full window.

54%

First-trade activation

up from 42% in month two. We introduced a welcome incentive for users who traded within their first 3 days.

43%

second-trade rate

driven by limited-time 2×/3× reward multiplier events, giving users a specific reason to return.

82%

of users who started a trade completed it

After changing the Max button from wallet balance to market maximum, the manual-adjustment drop-off disappeared from screen recordings.

4 min 20 sec

Median time to first trade - Improved alongside trade completion after the Max CTA change. Fewer steps at the moment a user was committing real money.

Learnings

Looking back, Rewards was the most nuanced UX problem in the product. The main flows were the right priority as they were the foundation everything else sat on, but in focusing on getting those right, Rewards didn't get the same depth of thinking it probably needed. Given the chance to do it again, I'd have carved out dedicated time for it earlier in the process rather than treating it as something we'd refine post-launch.

The Discord and screen recording plan was the right call given the constraints. But it shouldn't have been the plan. It should have been the fallback.

Post-launch
iterations

We couldn't run another round of usability testing before launch due to timeline constraints. Instead, we built our feedback loop into the post-launch phase monitoring Discord and reviewing screen recordings to identify where users were struggling and why.

Redefine 'Max'

Screen recordings showed users tapping Max, then immediately reducing the amount, a sign Max wasn't behaving as expected. The button was set to wallet balance, but markets have liquidity caps. A user with $1,000 in a $200-capacity market would hit Max, get constrained, then manually drag down to find the ceiling. We changed Max to reflect the maximum available in that market. Same button, different intent, one fewer step at the moment a user is committing real money.

Trade completion rate improved to 82%. Median time to first trade dropped to 4 min 20 sec.

Turning rewards into competition

Users earned points after each trade, tied to a future protocol token we couldn't announce, the legal status and utility were still being finalised. Discord showed frustration: people didn't understand what the points were worth or why they should care. We repositioned them as a leaderboard. Instead of a future promise, users had live rank, something to compete for now. Discord sentiment shifted.

From onboarding to first trade

42% of new users connected a wallet but never placed a trade. To bridge that gap we introduced a time-limited welcome incentive: a 1.2× reward booster, redeemable within the first 3 days. A specific reason to act now rather than later. First-trade activation moved from 42% to 54%.

Giving users a reason to return

To drive repeat behaviour we introduced limited-time multiplier events, selected weeks where every trade earned 2×, 3×, or leaderboard points. A countdown timer created urgency. A specific reason to come back this week, not someday. 43% of first-time traders placed a second trade.