Enabling Prediction Markets on Cronos

Enabling Prediction Markets on Cronos

Led 3-person design team

Zero-to-one

Web 3

Delphi is Cronos' first on-chain prediction markets protocol. It lets users trade YES/NO outcomes on real-world events from crypto prices to sports to politics. The real design challenge wasn't interface. It was trust in a product category most users had never touched, on a surface that had to feel simple without being shallow.

Delphi is Cronos' first on-chain prediction markets protocol. It lets users trade YES/NO outcomes on real-world events from crypto prices to sports to politics. The real design challenge wasn't interface. It was trust in a product category most users had never touched, on a surface that had to feel simple without being shallow.

Outcome & Impact

Metrics within 6 months of launch.
6-month targets set before shipping.

$500K target →

$870K+

Trading volume

1,500 target →

1,800+

Traders onboarded

150 target →

105+

Markets created - For the first four months all markets were created by the Delphi team. We opened creation to users in month four, requiring initial liquidity,
a higher barrier than trading.

The challenge

Cronos was losing prediction market activity to competitors. Users had to leave the ecosystem entirely to place trades pulling volume and engagement outside the platform. The business objective was to prove that a native protocol could retain users within Cronos and generate real trading activity.

We were given 6 weeks. No existing user base, no IA to inherit, and a product category that most users had never encountered before.

Where I pushed back

Where I pushed back

Where I pushed back

The PM proposed lifting the IA directly from a competitor to hit the deadline. I pushed back: we couldn't commit to a structure before understanding our users. I presented a clear discovery plan and won
a 2-week research extension.

My role

Led two product designers across the full project and post-MVP.

Owned: user research, IA, primary flows, and final design approval. The job wasn't just designing Delphi. It was making sure three designers shipped one coherent product.

How I ran the team

Design team

Two design syncs per week: one to review progress, one to make decisions and unblock. During discovery we formed hypotheses together rather than me handing down conclusions.

Wider team

I set up a weekly design show and tell with Product and Engineering from day one, ramping to twice a week during build, with a parallel engineering show and tell alongside it so developers walked through the build step by step.

Research approach

Competitive
analysis

User
interviews

Workshop
& IA

Prototyping
& testing

Outcome & Impact

Metrics within 5 months of launch. 3-month targets set before shipping.

$500K target →

$870K+

Trading volume

1,500 target →

1,800+

Traders onboarded

150 target →

105+

Markets created - For the first four months all markets were created by the Delphi team. We opened creation to users in month four, requiring initial liquidity, a higher barrier than trading.

Outcome & Impact

Metrics within 5 months of launch. 3-month targets set before shipping.

$500K target →

$870K+

Trading volume

1,500 target →

1,800+

Traders onboarded

150 target →

105+

Markets created - For the first four months all markets were created by the Delphi team. We opened creation to users in month four, requiring initial liquidity, a higher barrier than trading.

Competitive landscape

Competitive landscape

I looked at 12 existing prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, and others comparing features, design, and real usage data.

Accessibility gap

Half weren't beginner-friendly. We owned accessibility.

Market creation gap

Only 3 of 12 let users create markets. We made it core.

Engagement, not reach

Polymarket: $607M from 437k users. Limitless: $38M from 600. Depth beats reach.

User interviews

I ran 7 interviews with a mix of newcomers and experienced users. Instead of asking what they wanted, I had each person pick their favourite protocol Polymarket, Manifold, whatever they actually used and walk me through how they used it, what they looked for, and where they got stuck.

Three patterns kept emerging.

Key insights

Placing a bet shouldn't require a trader's vocabulary

People join when the market looks active and trustworthy

Engagement shouldn't end the moment a bet is placed

User persona

Design principles

Why it matters: These insights shaped the MVP scope and structure, prioritising clarity, confidence, and early participation over feature depth.

Principle #1

Clarity before power

Make outcomes and next steps clear before introducing advanced controls.

Principle #2

Reveal complexity gradually

Only show advanced detail when users need it.

Principle #3

Keep jobs separate

Treat Discover, Portfolio, and Rewards as distinct tasks

Principle #4

Design for confidence

Use clear states, confirmations, and recovery paths to reduce anxiety.

IA workshop
(how I drove alignment)

Research time was tight, but alignment on product structure had to happen before a single screen was built. I organised a hands-on card sorting workshop with Product and Engineering (10 participants across both disciplines) to map user tasks, group them by intent, and agree the MVP navigation in the room.

Step 1

Step 2

Step 3

Step 4

Wireframing & Validation

Wireframing & Validation

With architecture and principles locked, I moved into wireframing and early validation to pressure-test the riskiest parts of the flow before visual design making sure users could understand the system, complete key actions, and recover from mistakes without extra explanation.

User test results

6 participants tested Delphi across 6 tasks.

Overall
sentiment

4.4/5 on core flows

4.4/5 average score

4.4/5

Core flows worked. Non-crypto users struggled with the trading mechanics, the interface didn't bridge the gap.

Every participant confused rewards with winnings.

We shipped with a known problem and a plan to fix it

The plan: monitor Discord community sentiment as live qualitative data and use screen recordings to study actual behaviour post-launch.

"I really like this UI a lot, very similar to stock trading app, not super crypto, it's very simple." — Participant 5

"I really like this UI a lot, very similar to stock trading app, not super crypto, it's very simple." — Participant 5

"I really like this UI a lot, very similar to stock trading app, not super crypto, it's very simple." — Participant 5

Design system

Design system

I established core UI foundations and component patterns, evolving them into a lightweight design system that supported consistency and rapid iteration across the MVP and future features.

Components were built to WCAG 2.1 Level AA as a baseline, contrast ratios, labelled inputs, and descriptive error states were defined at system level, not left to individual screens.

Design decisions

Market Details

Clarity before power · Reveal complexity gradually · Design for confidence

Probability as a visual bar, not a number. The order book collapses by default: there for power users, out of the way for everyone else. Yes/No stays pinned so the trade is always one tap away.

Vouchers

Clarity before power · Reveal complexity gradually

Task-based rewards to drive product engagement. Complete an action, earn a booster. The sheet shows what you hold, what it's worth, and what applies to your current trade.

Trading competition

Design for confidence

User testing showed the experience felt complete after the first trade. Competitions were the fix: a live leaderboard, a prize structure, and a countdown give users a reason to keep trading beyond their first market.

  • Delphi markets
  • Events
  • Market info
  • Winning modal
  • Profile
  • Vouchers
  • Onboarding
  • Delphi markets
  • Events
  • Market info
  • Winning modal
  • Profile
  • Vouchers
  • Onboarding
More screens
+
+
+
+

54%

First-trade activation

up from 42% in month two. We introduced a welcome incentive for users who traded within their first 3 days.

43%

second-trade rate

driven by limited-time 2×/3× reward multiplier events, giving users a specific reason to return.

82%

of users who started a trade completed it

After changing the Max button from wallet balance to market maximum, the manual-adjustment drop-off disappeared from screen recordings.

4 min 20 sec

Median time to first trade - Improved alongside trade completion after the Max CTA change. Fewer steps at the moment a user was committing real money.

Learnings

Looking back, Rewards was the most nuanced UX problem in the product. The main flows were the right priority as they were the foundation everything else sat on, but in focusing on getting those right, Rewards didn't get the same depth of thinking it probably needed. Given the chance to do it again, I'd have carved out dedicated time for it earlier in the process rather than treating it as something we'd refine post-launch.

The Discord and screen recording plan was the right call given the constraints. But it shouldn't have been the plan. It should have been the fallback.

Post-launch
iterations

We built our feedback loop into post-launch: Discord monitoring and screen recordings to catch friction, and metric tracking to find where the product was leaking.

Turning rewards into competition

Points were tied to a future token that couldn't be announced yet. Discord showed frustration: users didn't know what points were worth or why they should care. We reframed them as a live leaderboard

Iterations that moved metrics

Trade completion
rate improved to

82%

+

First trade activation
moved from 42% to

54%

+
+

First traders placed
a second trade

43%

+